Understanding democratic transitions in the Arab World

Abstract EN

The recent Arab uprisings have forced a new trajectory of transitions to democracy from the long-reigning autocracies that have dominated this region.

This paper analyzes the factors that underlie this transition, where we code ‘democratic transitions’ as a multiyear phenomenon.

We find that rents from oil and other minerals are hindrance to democracy when managed by less than fully democratic regimes and that their corrosive influence is subject to threshold effects.

Our results also suggest that home wars impede democratic transitions.

Finally, we tested for four causative mechanisms that might explain how or when resource rents can constitute a drag on democratization, and that are also of high relevance to the Arab world.

We show that resource rents are effective deterrents when they are deployed to create jobs or when the resource endowed country is located in a non-democratic or conflicting region.

On the other hand, compared to resource transfers, political repression does not seem to be the first best option, especially for highly resource endowed countries.