Long run versus short run analysis of climate change impacts on agriculture

Abstract EN

In this paper, we propose an original empirical investigation of the long run versus short run impacts of climate change on the Tunisian agriculture sector.

We find that annual temperature decreases both cereals and date production with an exception in highland areas.

In addition, annual rainfall has a positive effect on cereals but its shortages in the south negatively affect production in this region.

The short run climate effect is smaller than the long run effect.

Rainfall has a weak positive effect which is compensated by the threat of the brutal temperature increase during the last decades.

This paper calls for the implementation of a public policy privileging and subsidizing the threatened areas.