Forecasting by box-jenkins (ARIMA) models to inflow of Haditha Dam
Author
Source
Journal of University of Babylon for Engineering Sciences
Issue
Vol. 21, Issue 5 (31 Dec. 2013), pp.1675-1685, 11 p.
Publisher
Publication Date
2013-12-31
Country of Publication
Iraq
No. of Pages
11
Main Subjects
Earth Sciences, Water and Environment
Topics
Abstract AR
تم تطبیق طریقة بوكس-جنكینز (Box-Jenkins) في هذه الدراسة للنموذج الفصلي (model) للجریان الشهري إلى سد حدیثة في منتصف غرب العراق للفترة من بدایة السنة المائیة 2000/1999 و حتى نهایة السنة المائیة 2009/2008.
حیث تمت مطابقة نوعین من النماذج التصادفیة الفصلیة و هي النموذج (0.1.1) x (0.1.1)12 و النموذج (0.1.2) x (0.1.1)12 و اختیر النموذج الذي یعطي أقل مجموع مربعات أخطاء.
إن نتائج استخدام طریقة مجموع المربعات غیر المشروطة لتقدیر معالم النماذج أظهرت بأن مجموع مربعات الأخطاء للنموذج (0.1.2) x (0.1.1)12 بمعالم θ1=0.368, θ2=0.321 و Θ =0.910 هو الأقل.
كما و أن فحص مخطط الذبذبة و فحص Port Manteau Lack لم یبینا وجود عشوائیة في الباقیات لهذا النموذج.
و لقد تم أیضا تولید السلسلة المستقبلیة حسب النموذج وللفترة من تشرین الأول 2009 و لغایة أیلول 2011 و عند مقارنتها مع القیم الفعلیة المسجلة وجد تطابقا جیدا مما یؤكد ملائمة النموذج.
Abstract EN
Box-Jenkins seasonal model is applied in this study to records of mean flow to Hadith reservoir in the middle west of Iraq for period from water year 1999 / 2000 to water year 2008 / 2009.
Two types of model (0, 1, 1) × (0, 1, 1) 12 and (0, 1, 2) × (0, 1, 1) 12 are suggested, and the selected model is the one which give minimum sum of squares (SS).
The unconditional sum of squares is used to estimate the model parameters.
It is found that the model which corresponds to the minimum sum of squared errors is the (0, 1, 2) × (0, 1, 1) 12 model with parameters θ 1 = 0.368, θ 2 = 0.321 and Θ = 0.910.
Port Manteau Lack of fit test and Residual Autocorrelation Function (RACF) test are applied as diagnostic checking.
Forecasts of monthly inflow for the period from October, 2009, to September, 2011, are compared with observed inflow for the same period and since agreement is very good adequacy of the selected model is confirmed.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Salih, Zahra Abd. 2013. Forecasting by box-jenkins (ARIMA) models to inflow of Haditha Dam. Journal of University of Babylon for Engineering Sciences،Vol. 21, no. 5, pp.1675-1685.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-346287
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Salih, Zahra Abd. Forecasting by box-jenkins (ARIMA) models to inflow of Haditha Dam. Journal of University of Babylon for Engineering Sciences Vol. 21, no. 5 (2013), pp.1675-1685.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-346287
American Medical Association (AMA)
Salih, Zahra Abd. Forecasting by box-jenkins (ARIMA) models to inflow of Haditha Dam. Journal of University of Babylon for Engineering Sciences. 2013. Vol. 21, no. 5, pp.1675-1685.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-346287
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references : p. 1884-1885
Record ID
BIM-346287