تقدير معلمات التمهيد المضاعف مع المحاكاة

Abstract EN

In this paper we estimate that the equation of smoothing to the first Smoothing is the same equation of double exponentioal smoothing, and finding the equation of prediction of two state first : the variance of the original time cerise xt, (σ2 xt) is the same as the variance of the Ft, , (σ2 Ft), (σ2 xt = , σ2 Ft), and the second state the variance of xt, , (σ2 xt) is not the same as the variance of Ft, σ2 ft, (σ2 xt = , σ2 Ft),.

Ft This results will be applied to the real data which represent the mean of relative wet of Mosul city, and also to the data obtained form simulation, with use the (χ2, MSD) to select the best of smoothing.