River flow forecasting using time series analysis case of blue nile river at Ed deim station
Dissertant
Thesis advisor
Bashshar, Kamal al-Din al-Sadiq
University
Omdurman Islamic University
Faculty
Unesco Chair in Water Resources
University Country
Sudan
Degree
Master
Degree Date
2005
English Abstract
-The study area Ed Deim station, located on the Blue Nile River at a distance of 102 Km southeast the Rosaries reservoir, at the border between the Sudan and Ethiopia.
The available data from 1964 to 1996, after 1996 the station becomes inaccessible due to security reasons for many years, thus makes the forecasting of flows an important indispensable tool, this study uses the time series analysis to predict the future values, because the station is important for monitoring the inflows to Rosaries reservoir and for controlling the operation of the reservoir. Data in the form of daily discharge, have been collected and analyzed, the main goal in this study is to analyze time series to obtain optimizing models to forecast the future values and to generate synthetic flow.
Analysis of the historical data for homogeneity and Stationarity was done.
Results showed that the data is stationary and homogenous. Annual and monthly trend analysis was also performed on the historical data with results showing various outcomes. ARMA model was fitted to historical data.
It was found that ARMA (1,1) best fits the data.
The ARMA (1,1)was fitted and used to regenerate historical record.
Results showed complete agreement between the observed and generated flows. T-F model was also fitted to historical monthly data and the 36 T-F parameters were obtained.
The fitted T-F model was used to generated a 100 years synthetic sequence.
Results showed that the generated sequences conserved most of the historical data statistical parameters.
The study concluded that both T-F and ARMA models can be used to generate and forecast future values of flows in Ed Deim station.
Main Subjects
Topics
No. of Pages
91
Table of Contents
Table of contents.
Abstract.
Chapter One : Introduction.
Chapter Two : Literature review.
Chapter Three : Methodology.
Chapter Four : Applications, results and discussion.
Chapter Five : Summary, conclusions and recommendations.
References.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Middawi, Manal Yusuf Ahmad. (2005). River flow forecasting using time series analysis case of blue nile river at Ed deim station. (Master's theses Theses and Dissertations Master). Omdurman Islamic University, Sudan
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-364236
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Middawi, Manal Yusuf Ahmad. River flow forecasting using time series analysis case of blue nile river at Ed deim station. (Master's theses Theses and Dissertations Master). Omdurman Islamic University. (2005).
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-364236
American Medical Association (AMA)
Middawi, Manal Yusuf Ahmad. (2005). River flow forecasting using time series analysis case of blue nile river at Ed deim station. (Master's theses Theses and Dissertations Master). Omdurman Islamic University, Sudan
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-364236
Language
English
Data Type
Arab Theses
Record ID
BIM-364236
