Marine impacts of potential climate change

Abstract EN

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is now in an advanced stage in preparing its third scientific assessment, which will be published in January 2001.

A number of marine impacts of climate change are anticipated in the next century, including changes in water temperatures, and perhaps ocean circulation patterns.

However, the most direct change is likely to be an increase in global sea level.

Popular concern about increased risks of coastal flooding in a future warmer world has led to extensive scientific investigation, new monitoring programmes and assessments of local vulnerability.

Tide gauge measurements show an increase of around 20 cm over the past 100 years and plausible scenarios suggest further increases of 50 cm by 2100.

The risks of coastal flooding will be significantly increasing.

Changes in the intensity and pattern of storms may also influence risks of flooding.

Until more extensive sea level records become available, including for example through new techniques such as satellite altimetry, these forecasts will probably not change substantially for some time.

Now authorities with responsibility for coastal areas at risk must act to assess present risks and to put in place systems for giving an early warning of increasing future risks.

This presentation will give some examples of measurements and studies to anticipate marine impacts, and will discuss recent measurements and studies in the Red Sea.