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Forecasting project schedule performance using probabilistic and deterministic models
Joint Authors
Husni, Husam E.
Ibrahim, Ahmad H.
Abd al-Azim S. A.
Source
Housing and Building National Research Center Journal
Issue
Vol. 10, Issue 1 (30 Apr. 2014), pp.35-42, 8 p.
Publisher
Housing and Building National Research Center
Publication Date
2014-04-30
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
8
Main Subjects
Engineering & Technology Sciences (Multidisciplinary)
Topics
Abstract EN
Earned value management (EVM) was originally developed for cost management and has not widely been used for forecasting project duration.
In addition, EVM based formulas for cost or schedule forecasting are still deterministic and do not provide any information about the range of possible outcomes and the probability of meeting the project objectives.
The objective of this paper is to develop three models to forecast the estimated duration at completion.
Two of these models are deterministic; earned value (EV) and earned schedule (ES) models.
The third model is a probabilistic model and developed based on Kalman filter algorithm and earned schedule management.
Hence, the accuracies of the EV, ES and Kalman Filter Forecasting Model (KFFM) through the different project periods will be assessed and compared with the other forecasting methods such as the Critical Path Method (CPM), which makes the time forecast at activity level by revising the actual reporting data for each activity at a certain data date.
A case study project is used to validate the results of the three models.
Hence, the best model is selected based on the lowest average percentage of error.
The results showed that the KFFM developed in this study provides probabilistic prediction bounds of project duration at completion and can be applied through the different project periods with smaller errors than those observed in EV and ES forecasting models
American Psychological Association (APA)
Abd al-Azim S. A.& Husni, Husam E.& Ibrahim, Ahmad H.. 2014. Forecasting project schedule performance using probabilistic and deterministic models. Housing and Building National Research Center Journal،Vol. 10, no. 1, pp.35-42.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-374500
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Abd al-Azim S. A.…[et al.]. Forecasting project schedule performance using probabilistic and deterministic models. Housing and Building National Research Center Journal Vol. 10, no. 1 (2014), pp.35-42.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-374500
American Medical Association (AMA)
Abd al-Azim S. A.& Husni, Husam E.& Ibrahim, Ahmad H.. Forecasting project schedule performance using probabilistic and deterministic models. Housing and Building National Research Center Journal. 2014. Vol. 10, no. 1, pp.35-42.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-374500
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references : p. 42
Record ID
BIM-374500