استخدام بعض معايير المعلومات في تحديد أفضل نموذج موسمي مضاعف

Abstract EN

The main objective of this study is to select the best multiplicative seasonal model of the time series data using some information criteria; they are AIC, BIC, AICC, and SMAIC.

Then prediction is made for the different models and calculates the final prediction error criterion to ensure the accuracy of our best selected model.

In our study we select the model ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 as the best model for the wind speed series X1,t and the model ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 as the best model for the cloud series X2,t .