Geometrical Variable Weights Buffer GM(1,1) Model and Its Application in Forecasting of China’s Energy Consumption
Joint Authors
Source
Journal of Applied Mathematics
Issue
Vol. 2014, Issue 2014 (31 Dec. 2014), pp.1-6, 6 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2014-04-15
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
6
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
In order to improve the application area and the prediction accuracy of GM(1,1) model, a novel Grey model is proposed in this paper.
To remedy the defects about the applications of traditional Grey model and buffer operators in medium- and long-term forecasting, a Variable Weights Buffer Grey model is proposed.
The proposed model integrates the variable weights buffer operator with the background value optimized GM(1,1) model to implement dynamic preprocessing of original data.
Taking the maximum degree of Grey incidence between fitting value and actual value as objective function, then the optimal buffer factor is chosen, which can improve forecasting precision, make forecasting results embodying the internal trend of original data to the maximum extent, and improve the stability of the prediction.
To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, the energy consumption in China from 2002 to 2009 is used for the modeling to forecast the energy consumption in China from 2010 to 2020, and the forecasting results prove that the GVGM(1,1) model has remarkably improved the forecasting ability of medium- and long-term energy consumption in China.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Li, Wei& Xie, Han. 2014. Geometrical Variable Weights Buffer GM(1,1) Model and Its Application in Forecasting of China’s Energy Consumption. Journal of Applied Mathematics،Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-6.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-448170
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Li, Wei& Xie, Han. Geometrical Variable Weights Buffer GM(1,1) Model and Its Application in Forecasting of China’s Energy Consumption. Journal of Applied Mathematics No. 2014 (2014), pp.1-6.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-448170
American Medical Association (AMA)
Li, Wei& Xie, Han. Geometrical Variable Weights Buffer GM(1,1) Model and Its Application in Forecasting of China’s Energy Consumption. Journal of Applied Mathematics. 2014. Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-6.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-448170
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-448170