The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series : A Study on Epidemiological System Identification
Joint Authors
Chaui-Berlinck, J. G.
Oliveira, D. N.
Monteiro, Luiz H. A.
Source
Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Issue
Vol. 2009, Issue 2009 (31 Dec. 2009), pp.1-10, 10 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2009-05-06
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
10
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004.
At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R.
The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice) passing from a state to another state.
Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm.
If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values.
A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Monteiro, Luiz H. A.& Oliveira, D. N.& Chaui-Berlinck, J. G.. 2009. The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series : A Study on Epidemiological System Identification. Mathematical Problems in Engineering،Vol. 2009, no. 2009, pp.1-10.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-448695
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Monteiro, Luiz H. A.…[et al.]. The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series : A Study on Epidemiological System Identification. Mathematical Problems in Engineering No. 2009 (2009), pp.1-10.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-448695
American Medical Association (AMA)
Monteiro, Luiz H. A.& Oliveira, D. N.& Chaui-Berlinck, J. G.. The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series : A Study on Epidemiological System Identification. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2009. Vol. 2009, no. 2009, pp.1-10.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-448695
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-448695