Forecasts of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures by Neural Networks and Support Vector Regression
Joint Authors
Aguilar-Martinez, Silvestre
Hsieh, William W.
Source
International Journal of Oceanography
Issue
Vol. 2009, Issue 2009 (31 Dec. 2009), pp.1-13, 13 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2009-12-24
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
13
Main Subjects
Earth Science , Water and Environment
History and Geography
Science
Abstract EN
Two nonlinear regression methods, Bayesian neural network (BNN) and support vector regression (SVR), and linear regression (LR), were used to forecast the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies at lead times ranging from 3 to 15 months, using sea level pressure (SLP) and SST as predictors.
Datasets for 1950–2005 and 1980–2005 were studied, with the latter period having the warm water volume (WWV) above the 20∘C isotherm integrated across the equatorial Pacific available as an extra predictor.
The forecasts indicated that the nonlinear structure is mainly present in the second PCA (principal component analysis) mode of the SST field.
Overall, improvements in forecast skills by the nonlinear models over LR were modest.
Although SVR has two structural advantages over neural network models, namely (a) no multiple minima in the optimization process and (b) an error norm robust to outliers in the data, it did not give better overall forecasts than BNN.
Addition of WWV as an extra predictor generally increased the forecast skills slightly; however, the influence of WWV on SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific appears to be linear.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Aguilar-Martinez, Silvestre& Hsieh, William W.. 2009. Forecasts of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures by Neural Networks and Support Vector Regression. International Journal of Oceanography،Vol. 2009, no. 2009, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-451207
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Aguilar-Martinez, Silvestre& Hsieh, William W.. Forecasts of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures by Neural Networks and Support Vector Regression. International Journal of Oceanography No. 2009 (2009), pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-451207
American Medical Association (AMA)
Aguilar-Martinez, Silvestre& Hsieh, William W.. Forecasts of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures by Neural Networks and Support Vector Regression. International Journal of Oceanography. 2009. Vol. 2009, no. 2009, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-451207
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-451207