Probable Values of Current Solar Cycle Peak

Abstract EN

An analysis of multiple linear regression method applied to solar cycles 4 to 23 using lagged values of smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers as independent variables is presented.

According to that, the amplitude of current solar cycle 24 is estimated providing a quantitative prediction result.

Our adjustment shows that the current cycle would have a sunspot peak less than the biggest one observed during the cycle 19 giving an additional support to the declination in solar activity which is currently happening.