Spectral Analysis of the Svalbard Temperature Record 1912–2010
Joint Authors
Stordahl, Kjell
Humlum, Ole
Solheim, Jan-Erik
Source
Issue
Vol. 2011, Issue 2011 (31 Dec. 2011), pp.1-14, 14 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2012-01-29
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
14
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Climate development with possible anthropogenic effects occurs on a background of natural climatic variations, which may be considerable, and especially in the Arctic.
Natural climate variations however remain poorly understood, although they remain important for discriminating between natural and anthropogenic influences on current climate change.
Using the Svalbard (78°N) surface air temperature record 1912–2010 as an example, we here suggest a road ahead to identify and describe such natural climate variations.
By means of Fourier and wavelet analysis the record is decomposed into time-frequency space, to extract information on periodic signals and their amplitude and variation over time.
By this we identify several cyclic variations on the time scale investigated.
These oscillations are present in the annual record, as well as in seasonal subsets of the record.
Using only three oscillations it is possible to hindcast the Svalbard temperature record well.
We suggest that such persistent oscillations may be used for forecasting the overall features of future temperature changes for a limited period, about 10–25% of the record length.
Our main focus is on identifying the character of recurrent natural temperature variations, but we also comment briefly on possible physical explanations for some of the identified cyclic variations.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Humlum, Ole& Solheim, Jan-Erik& Stordahl, Kjell. 2012. Spectral Analysis of the Svalbard Temperature Record 1912–2010. Advances in Meteorology،Vol. 2011, no. 2011, pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-451941
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Humlum, Ole…[et al.]. Spectral Analysis of the Svalbard Temperature Record 1912–2010. Advances in Meteorology No. 2011 (2011), pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-451941
American Medical Association (AMA)
Humlum, Ole& Solheim, Jan-Erik& Stordahl, Kjell. Spectral Analysis of the Svalbard Temperature Record 1912–2010. Advances in Meteorology. 2012. Vol. 2011, no. 2011, pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-451941
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-451941