Seasonal Prediction of Surface Air Temperature across Vietnam Using the Regional Climate Model Version 4.2 (RegCM4.2)
Joint Authors
Phan Van, Tan
Ngo-Duc, Thanh
Nguyen Quang, Trung
Trinh Tuan, Long
Van Nguyen, Hiep
Laux, Patrick
Nguyen Xuan, Thanh
Source
Issue
Vol. 2014, Issue 2014 (31 Dec. 2014), pp.1-13, 13 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2014-06-18
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
13
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
To investigate the ability of dynamical seasonal climate predictions for Vietnam, the RegCM4.2 is employed to perform seasonal prediction of 2 m mean (T2m), maximum (Tx), and minimum (Tn) air temperature for the period from January 2012 to November 2013 by downscaling the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) data.
For model bias correction, the model and observed climatology is constructed using the CFS reanalysis and observed temperatures over Vietnam for the period 1980–2010, respectively.
The RegCM4.2 forecast is run four times per month from the current month up to the next six months.
A model ensemble prediction initialized from the current month is computed from the mean of the four runs within the month.
The results showed that, without any bias correction (CTL), the RegCM4.2 forecast has very little or no skill in both tercile and value predictions.
With bias correction (BAS), model predictions show improved skill.
The experiment in which the results from the BAS experiment are further successively adjusted (SUC) with model bias at one-month lead time of the previous run showed further improvement compared to CTL and BAS.
Skill scores of the tercile probability forecasts were found to exceed 0.3 for most of the target months.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Phan Van, Tan& Van Nguyen, Hiep& Trinh Tuan, Long& Nguyen Quang, Trung& Ngo-Duc, Thanh& Laux, Patrick…[et al.]. 2014. Seasonal Prediction of Surface Air Temperature across Vietnam Using the Regional Climate Model Version 4.2 (RegCM4.2). Advances in Meteorology،Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-456861
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Phan Van, Tan…[et al.]. Seasonal Prediction of Surface Air Temperature across Vietnam Using the Regional Climate Model Version 4.2 (RegCM4.2). Advances in Meteorology No. 2014 (2014), pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-456861
American Medical Association (AMA)
Phan Van, Tan& Van Nguyen, Hiep& Trinh Tuan, Long& Nguyen Quang, Trung& Ngo-Duc, Thanh& Laux, Patrick…[et al.]. Seasonal Prediction of Surface Air Temperature across Vietnam Using the Regional Climate Model Version 4.2 (RegCM4.2). Advances in Meteorology. 2014. Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-456861
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-456861