Probabilistic Ensemble Forecast of Summertime Temperatures in Pakistan
Author
Source
Issue
Vol. 2014, Issue 2014 (31 Dec. 2014), pp.1-6, 6 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2014-03-30
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
6
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Snowmelt flooding triggered by intense heat is a major temperature related weather hazard in northern Pakistan, and the frequency of such extreme flood events has increased during the recent years.
In this study, the probabilistic temperature forecasts at seasonal and subseasonal time scales based on hindcasts simulations from three state-of-the-art models within the DEMETER project are assessed by the relative operating characteristic (ROC) verification method.
Results based on direct model outputs reveal significant skill for hot summers in February 3–5 (ROC area=0.707 with lower 95% confidence limit of 0.538) and February 4-5 (ROC area=0.771 with lower 95% confidence limit of 0.623) forecasts when validated against observations.
Results for ERA-40 reanalysis also show skill for hot summers.
Skilful probabilistic ensemble forecasts of summertime temperatures may be valuable in providing the foreknowledge of snowmelt flooding and water management in Pakistan.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Hanif, Muhammad. 2014. Probabilistic Ensemble Forecast of Summertime Temperatures in Pakistan. Advances in Meteorology،Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-6.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-459880
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Hanif, Muhammad. Probabilistic Ensemble Forecast of Summertime Temperatures in Pakistan. Advances in Meteorology No. 2014 (2014), pp.1-6.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-459880
American Medical Association (AMA)
Hanif, Muhammad. Probabilistic Ensemble Forecast of Summertime Temperatures in Pakistan. Advances in Meteorology. 2014. Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-6.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-459880
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-459880