A Prediction on Nigeria's Oil Depletion Based on Hubbert's Model and the Need for Renewable Energy

Abstract EN

The paper examined Nigeria's oil sector in order to get a time point of total depletion.

Data for production rate, P, was sourced from 1958–2008 for the study.

This research employed Hubbert's Model that based the peaking of oil reserves on the simulation of a bell-shaped curve that rises rapidly to a peak and declines just as quickly.

MATLAB tool was employed in the analysis of data.

Findings include that there is an imminent decline in Nigeria's oil reserve since peaking could have occurred or just about to occur; this is shown to be in agreement with previous studies, and an account of how oil depletion will affect domestic use of energy is also highlighted.

Recommendations amongst others include the immediate adoption of Hirsch Report on the employment of mitigation efforts like alternative energy investments in order to tackle the dire effects which may come as economic, social, and political demands in the wake of a sudden decline, as well as domesticating energy retail by setting up small- and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) which are empowered to provide basic energy source using renewable energy resources.