A Longstaff and Schwartz Approach to the Early Election Problem
Joint Authors
Source
Issue
Vol. 2012, Issue 2012 (31 Dec. 2012), pp.1-18, 18 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2012-10-18
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
18
Main Subjects
Topics
Abstract EN
In many democratic parliamentary systems, election timing is an important decision availed to governments according to sovereign political systems.
Prudent governments can take advantage of this constitutional option in order to maximize their expected remaining life in power.
The problem of establishing the optimal time to call an election based on observed poll data has been well studied with several solution methods and various degrees of modeling complexity.
The derivation of the optimal exercise boundary holds strong similarities with the American option valuation problem from mathematical finance.
A seminal technique refined by Longstaff and Schwartz in 2001 provided a method to estimate the exercise boundary of the American options using a Monte Carlo method and a least squares objective.
In this paper, we modify the basic technique to establish the optimal exercise boundary for calling a political election.
Several innovative adaptations are required to make the method work with the additional complexity in the electoral problem.
The transfer of Monte Carlo methods from finance to determine the optimal exercise of real-options appears to be a new approach.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Tonkes, Elliot& Lesmono, Dharma. 2012. A Longstaff and Schwartz Approach to the Early Election Problem. Advances in Decision Sciences،Vol. 2012, no. 2012, pp.1-18.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-460588
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Tonkes, Elliot& Lesmono, Dharma. A Longstaff and Schwartz Approach to the Early Election Problem. Advances in Decision Sciences No. 2012 (2012), pp.1-18.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-460588
American Medical Association (AMA)
Tonkes, Elliot& Lesmono, Dharma. A Longstaff and Schwartz Approach to the Early Election Problem. Advances in Decision Sciences. 2012. Vol. 2012, no. 2012, pp.1-18.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-460588
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-460588