Uncertainty Analysis of Multiple Hydrologic Models Using the Bayesian Model Averaging Method
Joint Authors
Dong, Leihua
Xiong, Lihua
Yu, Kun-xia
Source
Journal of Applied Mathematics
Issue
Vol. 2013, Issue 2013 (31 Dec. 2013), pp.1-11, 11 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2013-12-05
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
11
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Since Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method can combine the forecasts of different models together to generate a new one which is expected to be better than any individual model’s forecast, it has been widely used in hydrology for ensemble hydrologic prediction.
Previous studies of the BMA mostly focused on the comparison of the BMA mean prediction with each individual model’s prediction.
As BMA has the ability to provide a statistical distribution of the quantity to be forecasted, the research focus in this study is shifted onto the comparison of the prediction uncertainty interval generated by BMA with that of each individual model under two different BMA combination schemes.
In the first BMA scheme, three models under the same Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency objective function are, respectively, calibrated, thus providing three-member predictions ensemble for the BMA combination.
In the second BMA scheme, all three models are, respectively, calibrated under three different objective functions other than Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency to obtain nine-member predictions ensemble.
Finally, the model efficiency and the uncertainty intervals of each individual model and two BMA combination schemes are assessed and compared.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Dong, Leihua& Xiong, Lihua& Yu, Kun-xia. 2013. Uncertainty Analysis of Multiple Hydrologic Models Using the Bayesian Model Averaging Method. Journal of Applied Mathematics،Vol. 2013, no. 2013, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-464524
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Dong, Leihua…[et al.]. Uncertainty Analysis of Multiple Hydrologic Models Using the Bayesian Model Averaging Method. Journal of Applied Mathematics No. 2013 (2013), pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-464524
American Medical Association (AMA)
Dong, Leihua& Xiong, Lihua& Yu, Kun-xia. Uncertainty Analysis of Multiple Hydrologic Models Using the Bayesian Model Averaging Method. Journal of Applied Mathematics. 2013. Vol. 2013, no. 2013, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-464524
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-464524