On the Predictability of Long-Range Dependent Series

Abstract EN

This paper points out that the predictability analysis of conventional time series may in general be invalid for long-range dependent (LRD) series since the conventional mean-square error (MSE) may generally not exist for predicting LRD series.

To make the MSE of LRD series prediction exist, we introduce a generalized MSE.

With that, the proof of the predictability of LRD series is presented in Hilbert space.