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Time-Series Regression Model for Prediction of Mean Daily Global Solar Radiation in Al-Ain, UAE
Joint Authors
Assi, Ali H.
Hejase, Hassan A. N.
Source
Issue
Vol. 2012, Issue 2012 (31 Dec. 2012), pp.1-11, 11 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2012-04-11
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
11
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
The availability of short-term forecast weather model for a particular country or region is essential for operation planning of energy systems.
This paper presents the first step by a group of researchers at UAE University to establish a weather model for the UAE using the weather data for at least 10 years and employing various models such as classical empirical models, artificial neural network (ANN) models, and time-series regression models with autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA).
This work uses time-series regression with ARIMA modeling to establish a model for the mean daily and monthly global solar radiation (GSR) for the city of Al-Ain, United Arab Emirates.
Time-series analysis of solar radiation has shown to yield accurate average long-term prediction performance of solar radiation in Al-Ain.
The model was built using data for 10 years (1995–2004) and was validated using data of three years (2005–2007), yielding deterministic coefficients (R2) of 92.6% and 99.98% for mean daily and monthly GSR data, respectively.
The low corresponding values of mean bias error (MBE), mean absolute bias error (MABE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root-mean-square error (RMSE) confirm the adequacy of the obtained model for long-term prediction of GSR data in Al-Ain, UAE.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Hejase, Hassan A. N.& Assi, Ali H.. 2012. Time-Series Regression Model for Prediction of Mean Daily Global Solar Radiation in Al-Ain, UAE. ISRN Renewable Energy،Vol. 2012, no. 2012, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-470056
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Hejase, Hassan A. N.& Assi, Ali H.. Time-Series Regression Model for Prediction of Mean Daily Global Solar Radiation in Al-Ain, UAE. ISRN Renewable Energy No. 2012 (2012), pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-470056
American Medical Association (AMA)
Hejase, Hassan A. N.& Assi, Ali H.. Time-Series Regression Model for Prediction of Mean Daily Global Solar Radiation in Al-Ain, UAE. ISRN Renewable Energy. 2012. Vol. 2012, no. 2012, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-470056
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-470056