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A Hybrid Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Model Based on the Singular Spectrum Analysis and Autoregressive Model
Joint Authors
Sun, Jingqi
Guo, Sen
Cui, Liuyang
Source
Advances in Electrical Engineering
Issue
Vol. 2014, Issue 2014 (31 Dec. 2014), pp.1-7, 7 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2014-05-05
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
7
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Short-term power load forecasting is one of the most important issues in the economic and reliable operation of electricity power system.
Taking the characteristics of randomness, tendency, and periodicity of short-term power load into account, a new method (SSA-AR model) which combines the univariate singular spectrum analysis and autoregressive model is proposed.
Firstly, the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is employed to decompose and reconstruct the original power load series.
Secondly, the autoregressive (AR) model is used to forecast based on the reconstructed power load series.
The employed data is the hourly power load series of the Mid-Atlantic region in PJM electricity market.
Empirical analysis result shows that, compared with the single autoregressive model (AR), SSA-based linear recurrent method (SSA-LRF), and BPNN (backpropagation neural network) model, the proposed SSA-AR method has a better performance in terms of short-term power load forecasting.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Sun, Jingqi& Cui, Liuyang& Guo, Sen. 2014. A Hybrid Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Model Based on the Singular Spectrum Analysis and Autoregressive Model. Advances in Electrical Engineering،Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-471125
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Sun, Jingqi…[et al.]. A Hybrid Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Model Based on the Singular Spectrum Analysis and Autoregressive Model. Advances in Electrical Engineering No. 2014 (2014), pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-471125
American Medical Association (AMA)
Sun, Jingqi& Cui, Liuyang& Guo, Sen. A Hybrid Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Model Based on the Singular Spectrum Analysis and Autoregressive Model. Advances in Electrical Engineering. 2014. Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-471125
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-471125