Information Content of Seasonal Forecasts in a Changing Climate
Joint Authors
Krakauer, Nir Y.
Aizenman, Hannah
Grossberg, Michael D.
Gladkova, Irina
Source
Issue
Vol. 2013, Issue 2013 (31 Dec. 2013), pp.1-12, 12 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2013-01-17
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
12
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
We study the potential value to stakeholders of probabilistic long-term forecasts, as quantified by the mean information gain of the forecast compared to climatology.
We use as a case study the USA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts of 3-month temperature and precipitation anomalies made at 0.5-month lead time since 1995.
Mean information gain was positive but low (about 2% and 0.5% of the maximum possible for temperature and precipitation forecasts, resp.) and has not increased over time.
Information-based skill scores showed similar patterns to other, non-information-based, skill scores commonly used for evaluating seasonal forecasts but tended to be smaller, suggesting that information gain is a particularly stringent measure of forecast quality.
We also present a new decomposition of forecast information gain into Confidence, Forecast Miscalibration, and Climatology Miscalibration components.
Based on this decomposition, the CPC forecasts for temperature are on average underconfident while the precipitation forecasts are overconfident.
We apply a probabilistic trend extrapolation method to provide an improved reference seasonal forecast, compared to the current CPC procedure which uses climatology from a recent 30-year period.
We show that combining the CPC forecast with the probabilistic trend extrapolation more than doubles the mean information gain, providing one simple avenue for increasing forecast skill.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Krakauer, Nir Y.& Grossberg, Michael D.& Gladkova, Irina& Aizenman, Hannah. 2013. Information Content of Seasonal Forecasts in a Changing Climate. Advances in Meteorology،Vol. 2013, no. 2013, pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-474865
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Krakauer, Nir Y.…[et al.]. Information Content of Seasonal Forecasts in a Changing Climate. Advances in Meteorology No. 2013 (2013), pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-474865
American Medical Association (AMA)
Krakauer, Nir Y.& Grossberg, Michael D.& Gladkova, Irina& Aizenman, Hannah. Information Content of Seasonal Forecasts in a Changing Climate. Advances in Meteorology. 2013. Vol. 2013, no. 2013, pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-474865
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-474865