Ensemble Hydrometeorological Forecasts Using WRF Hourly QPF and TopModel for a Middle Watershed
Joint Authors
Calvetti, Leonardo
Pereira Filho, Augusto José
Source
Issue
Vol. 2014, Issue 2014 (31 Dec. 2014), pp.1-12, 12 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2014-05-14
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
12
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) were obtained from ensembles of the weather and research forecasting (WRF) model for the Iguaçu river watershed (IRW) in southern Brazil.
Thirty-two rainfall events between 2005 and 2010 were simulated with ten configurations of WRF.
These rainfall events range from local to synoptic scale convection and caused a significant increase in the level of the Iguaçu river.
In the average, the ensembles yielded up to 20% better skill than single WRF forecasts for the events analyzed.
WRF ensembles also allow estimating the predictability through the dispersion of the forecasts providing relevant information for decision-making.
Phase errors of ensemble forecasts are larger than amplitude errors.
More complex microphysics parameterizations yielded better QPFs with smaller phase errors.
QPFs were fed to IRW hydrological model with similar phase and amplitude errors.
It is suggested that lagged QPFs might reduce phase errors.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Calvetti, Leonardo& Pereira Filho, Augusto José. 2014. Ensemble Hydrometeorological Forecasts Using WRF Hourly QPF and TopModel for a Middle Watershed. Advances in Meteorology،Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-475268
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Calvetti, Leonardo& Pereira Filho, Augusto José. Ensemble Hydrometeorological Forecasts Using WRF Hourly QPF and TopModel for a Middle Watershed. Advances in Meteorology No. 2014 (2014), pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-475268
American Medical Association (AMA)
Calvetti, Leonardo& Pereira Filho, Augusto José. Ensemble Hydrometeorological Forecasts Using WRF Hourly QPF and TopModel for a Middle Watershed. Advances in Meteorology. 2014. Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-475268
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-475268