The Failure of R0
Joint Authors
Li, Jing
Smith?, Robert J.
Blakeley, Daniel
Source
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
Issue
Vol. 2011, Issue 2011 (31 Dec. 2011), pp.1-17, 17 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2011-08-16
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
17
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
The basic reproductive ratio, R0, is one of the fundamental concepts in mathematical biology.
It is a threshold parameter, intended to quantify the spread of disease by estimating the average number of secondary infections in a wholly susceptible population, giving an indication of the invasion strength of an epidemic: if R0<1, the disease dies out, whereas if R0>1, the disease persists.
R0 has been widely used as a measure of disease strength to estimate the effectiveness of control measures and to form the backbone of disease-management policy.
However, in almost every aspect that matters, R0 is flawed.
Diseases can persist with R0<1, while diseases with R0>1 can die out.
We show that the same model of malaria gives many different values of R0, depending on the method used, with the sole common property that they have a threshold at 1.
We also survey estimated values of R0 for a variety of diseases, and examine some of the alternatives that have been proposed.
If R0 is to be used, it must be accompanied by caveats about the method of calculation, underlying model assumptions and evidence that it is actually a threshold.
Otherwise, the concept is meaningless.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Li, Jing& Blakeley, Daniel& Smith?, Robert J.. 2011. The Failure of R0. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine،Vol. 2011, no. 2011, pp.1-17.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-478821
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Li, Jing…[et al.]. The Failure of R0. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine No. 2011 (2011), pp.1-17.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-478821
American Medical Association (AMA)
Li, Jing& Blakeley, Daniel& Smith?, Robert J.. The Failure of R0. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine. 2011. Vol. 2011, no. 2011, pp.1-17.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-478821
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-478821