Identifying Rates of Emigration in the United States Using Administrative Earnings Records

Abstract EN

This paper undertakes a new strategy to estimate emigration rates among US immigrants by inferring the probability of emigration using longitudinal administrative earnings data.

Two groups of emigrants are evaluated separately: those who emigrate from the United States and those who leave both the United States and the Social Security system.

About 1.0 to 1.5 percent of the foreign-born population emigrate from the USA every year, and between about 0.8 and 1.2 percent of foreign-born workers emigrate from the Social Security system.

Regression analysis suggests that immigrants with lower earnings are more likely to emigrate and that the likelihood of emigrating from the United States increases with age, but is unchanged for those leaving the US Social Security system.