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Application of a Theorem in Stochastic Models of Elections
Joint Authors
Schofield, Norman
Zakharov, Alexei
Claassen, Christopher
Ozdemir, Ugur
Source
International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences
Issue
Vol. 2010, Issue 2010 (31 Dec. 2010), pp.1-30, 30 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2010-04-29
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
30
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Previous empirical research has developed stochastic electoral models for Israel, Turkey, and other polities.
The work suggests that convergence to an electoral center (often predicted by electoral models) is a nongeneric phenomenon.
In an attempt to explain nonconvergence, a formal model based on intrinsic valence is presented.
This theory showed that there are necessary and sufficient conditions for convergence.
The necessary condition is that a convergence coefficient c is bounded above by the dimension w of the policy space, while a sufficient condition is that the coefficient is bounded above by 1.
This coefficient is defined in terms of the difference in exogenous valences, the “spatial coefficient”, and the electoral variance.
The theoretical model is then applied to empirical analyses of elections in the United States and Britain.
These empirical models include sociodemographic valence and electoral perceptions of character trait.
It is shown that the model implies convergence to positions close to the electoral origin.
To explain party divergence, the model is then extended to incorporate activist valences.
This extension gives a first-order balance condition that allows the party to calculate the optimal marginal condition to maximize vote share.
We argue that the equilibrium positions of presidential candidates in US elections and by party leaders in British elections are principally due to the influence of activists, rather than the centripetal effect of the electorate.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Schofield, Norman& Claassen, Christopher& Ozdemir, Ugur& Zakharov, Alexei. 2010. Application of a Theorem in Stochastic Models of Elections. International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences،Vol. 2010, no. 2010, pp.1-30.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-480989
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Schofield, Norman…[et al.]. Application of a Theorem in Stochastic Models of Elections. International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences No. 2010 (2010), pp.1-30.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-480989
American Medical Association (AMA)
Schofield, Norman& Claassen, Christopher& Ozdemir, Ugur& Zakharov, Alexei. Application of a Theorem in Stochastic Models of Elections. International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences. 2010. Vol. 2010, no. 2010, pp.1-30.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-480989
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-480989