Scenario Analyses of Land Use Conversion in the North China Plain : An Econometric Approach

Abstract EN

Scenario analysis and dynamic prediction of land use structure which involve many driving factors are helpful to investigate the mechanism of land use changes and even to optimize land use allocation for sustainable development.

In this study, land use structure changes during 1988–2010 in North China Plain were discerned and the effects of various natural and socioeconomic driving factors on land use structure changes were quantitatively analyzed based on an econometric model.

The key drivers of land use structure changes in the model are county-level net returns of land resource.

In this research, we modified the net returns of each land use type for three scenarios, including business as usual (BAU) scenario, rapid economic growth (REG) scenario, and coordinated environmental sustainability (CES) scenario.

The simulation results showed that, under different scenarios, future land use structures were different due to the competition among various land use types.

The land use structure changes in North China Plain in the 40-year future will experience a transfer from cultivated land to built-up area, an increase of forestry, and decrease of grassland.

The research will provide some significant references for land use management and planning in the study area.