Uncertainty Analysis in Population-Based Disease Microsimulation Models
Joint Authors
Wolfson, Michael C.
Liu, Ran R.
Kopec, Jacek A.
Finès, Philippe
Wong, Hubert
Sayre, Eric C.
Sharif, Behnam
Source
Epidemiology Research International
Issue
Vol. 2012, Issue 2012 (31 Dec. 2012), pp.1-14, 14 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2012-07-25
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
14
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Objective.
Uncertainty analysis (UA) is an important part of simulation model validation.
However, literature is imprecise as to how UA should be performed in the context of population-based microsimulation (PMS) models.
In this expository paper, we discuss a practical approach to UA for such models.
Methods.
By adapting common concepts from published UA guidelines, we developed a comprehensive, step-by-step approach to UA in PMS models, including sample size calculation to reduce the computational time.
As an illustration, we performed UA for POHEM-OA, a microsimulation model of osteoarthritis (OA) in Canada.
Results.
The resulting sample size of the simulated population was 500,000 and the number of Monte Carlo (MC) runs was 785 for 12-hour computational time.
The estimated 95% uncertainty intervals for the prevalence of OA in Canada in 2021 were 0.09 to 0.18 for men and 0.15 to 0.23 for women.
The uncertainty surrounding the sex-specific prevalence of OA increased over time.
Conclusion.
The proposed approach to UA considers the challenges specific to PMS models, such as selection of parameters and calculation of MC runs and population size to reduce computational burden.
Our example of UA shows that the proposed approach is feasible.
Estimation of uncertainty intervals should become a standard practice in the reporting of results from PMS models.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Sharif, Behnam& Kopec, Jacek A.& Wong, Hubert& Finès, Philippe& Sayre, Eric C.& Liu, Ran R.…[et al.]. 2012. Uncertainty Analysis in Population-Based Disease Microsimulation Models. Epidemiology Research International،Vol. 2012, no. 2012, pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-484939
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Sharif, Behnam…[et al.]. Uncertainty Analysis in Population-Based Disease Microsimulation Models. Epidemiology Research International No. 2012 (2012), pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-484939
American Medical Association (AMA)
Sharif, Behnam& Kopec, Jacek A.& Wong, Hubert& Finès, Philippe& Sayre, Eric C.& Liu, Ran R.…[et al.]. Uncertainty Analysis in Population-Based Disease Microsimulation Models. Epidemiology Research International. 2012. Vol. 2012, no. 2012, pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-484939
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-484939