Age-Dependent Estimates of the Epidemiological Impact of Pandemic Influenza (H1N1-2009) in Japan
Joint Authors
Nishiura, Hiroshi
Yamamoto, Taro
Mizumoto, Kenji
Source
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
Issue
Vol. 2013, Issue 2013 (31 Dec. 2013), pp.1-8, 8 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2013-02-21
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
8
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
The total number of influenza cases with medical attendance has been estimated from sentinel surveillance data in Japan under a random sampling assumption of sentinel medical institutions among the total medical institutions.
The 2009 pandemic offered a research opportunity to validate the sentinel-based estimation method using the estimated proportion of infections measured by the population-wide seroepidemiological survey employing hemagglutinin inhibition (HI) assay.
For the entire population, we estimated the age-standardized proportion of infections at 28.5% and 23.5% using cut-off values of HI titer at 1 : 20 and 1 : 40, respectively.
Investigating the age profiles, we show that the estimated influenza-like illness (ILI) cases with medical attendance exceeded the estimated infections among those aged from 0 to 19 years, indicating an overestimation of the magnitude by sentinel-based estimation method.
The ratio of estimated cases to estimated infections decreased as a function of age.
Examining the geographic distributions, no positive correlation was identified between the estimated cases and infections.
Our findings indicate a serious technical limitation of the so-called multiplier method in appropriately quantifying the risk of influenza due to limited specificity of ILI and reporting bias.
A seroepidemiological study should be planned in advance of a pandemic.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Mizumoto, Kenji& Yamamoto, Taro& Nishiura, Hiroshi. 2013. Age-Dependent Estimates of the Epidemiological Impact of Pandemic Influenza (H1N1-2009) in Japan. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine،Vol. 2013, no. 2013, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-487097
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Mizumoto, Kenji…[et al.]. Age-Dependent Estimates of the Epidemiological Impact of Pandemic Influenza (H1N1-2009) in Japan. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine No. 2013 (2013), pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-487097
American Medical Association (AMA)
Mizumoto, Kenji& Yamamoto, Taro& Nishiura, Hiroshi. Age-Dependent Estimates of the Epidemiological Impact of Pandemic Influenza (H1N1-2009) in Japan. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine. 2013. Vol. 2013, no. 2013, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-487097
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-487097