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Possible Influence of Volcanic Activity on the Decadal Potential Predictability of the Natural Variability in Near-Term Climate Predictions
Joint Authors
Yokohata, Tokuta
Yasunaka, Sayaka
Ishii, Masayoshi
Emori, Seita
Shiogama, Hideo
Nozawa, Toru
Mochizuki, Takashi
Kimoto, Masahide
Source
Issue
Vol. 2010, Issue 2010 (31 Dec. 2010), pp.1-7, 7 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2010-06-28
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
7
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Initialization based on data assimilations using historical observations possibly improves near-term climate predictions.
Significant volcanic activity in the future is unpredictable and not assumed in future climate predictions.
To examine the possible influence of unpredictable future volcanic activity on the decadal potential predictability of the natural variability, we performed a 2006–2035 climate prediction experiment with the assumption that the 1991 Mt.
Pinatubo eruption would take place again in 2010.
The Pinatubo forcing induced not only significant cooling responses but also considerable noises in the natural variability.
The errors due to the Pinatubo forcing grew faster than that arising from imperfect knowledge of the observed state, leading to a rapid reduction of the decadal potential predictability of the natural variability.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Shiogama, Hideo& Emori, Seita& Mochizuki, Takashi& Yasunaka, Sayaka& Yokohata, Tokuta& Ishii, Masayoshi…[et al.]. 2010. Possible Influence of Volcanic Activity on the Decadal Potential Predictability of the Natural Variability in Near-Term Climate Predictions. Advances in Meteorology،Vol. 2010, no. 2010, pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-488787
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Shiogama, Hideo…[et al.]. Possible Influence of Volcanic Activity on the Decadal Potential Predictability of the Natural Variability in Near-Term Climate Predictions. Advances in Meteorology No. 2010 (2010), pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-488787
American Medical Association (AMA)
Shiogama, Hideo& Emori, Seita& Mochizuki, Takashi& Yasunaka, Sayaka& Yokohata, Tokuta& Ishii, Masayoshi…[et al.]. Possible Influence of Volcanic Activity on the Decadal Potential Predictability of the Natural Variability in Near-Term Climate Predictions. Advances in Meteorology. 2010. Vol. 2010, no. 2010, pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-488787
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-488787