Deterioration Prediction of Urban Bridges on Network Level Using Markov-Chain Model
Joint Authors
Source
Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Issue
Vol. 2014, Issue 2014 (31 Dec. 2014), pp.1-10, 10 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2014-03-02
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
10
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Bridges play an important role in urban transportation network.
However, it is hard to predict the bridge deterioration precisely in Shanghai, because records of various bridge types with different maintenance status coexist in the same database and the bridge age span is also large.
Therefore a Markov-chain model capable of considering maintenance factors is proposed in this study.
Three deterioration circumstances are modeled including natural decay, conventional recoverable decay, and enhanced recoverable decay.
Three components as well as the whole bridge are predicted including bridge deck system, superstructure, and substructure.
The Markov-chain model proposed can predict not only the distribution of the percentage of different condition rating (CR) grades on network level in any year but also the deterioration tendency of single bridge with any state.
Bridge data records of ten years were used to verify the model and also to find the deterioration tendency of urban bridges in Shanghai.
The results show that the bridge conditions would drop rapidly if no recoverable repair treatments were conducted.
Proper repair could slow down the deterioration speed.
The enhanced recoverable repair could significantly mitigate the deterioration process and even raise the CR grades after several years of maintenance and repair.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Li, Li& Sun, Lijun& Ning, Guobao. 2014. Deterioration Prediction of Urban Bridges on Network Level Using Markov-Chain Model. Mathematical Problems in Engineering،Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-10.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-493890
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Li, Li…[et al.]. Deterioration Prediction of Urban Bridges on Network Level Using Markov-Chain Model. Mathematical Problems in Engineering No. 2014 (2014), pp.1-10.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-493890
American Medical Association (AMA)
Li, Li& Sun, Lijun& Ning, Guobao. Deterioration Prediction of Urban Bridges on Network Level Using Markov-Chain Model. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2014. Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-10.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-493890
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-493890