Mathematical Modeling of the Propagation of Democratic Support of Extreme Ideologies in Spain : Causes, Effects, and Recommendations for Its Stop

Abstract EN

This paper deals with the construction of a discrete population mathematical model for the short-term forecast until January 2016 of the electoral support of extreme ideology parties in Spain.

Firstly, the nontrivial concept of extreme ideology is stated.

Then, the electoral register is split in three subpopulations: supporters of extremist parties, abstentions/blank voters, and supporters of establishment parties.

The model takes into account the following variables: economy measured throughout the Spanish unemployment rate; demography quantified in terms of birth and death rates and emigration; sociopolitical situation measured by the Spanish poverty indicator, trust on the Government labor indicator (GLI), and the indicator of political trust.

By considering the dynamic subpopulations transits built throughout data obtained from public and private prestigious institutions and sociopolitical analysis, a system of difference equations models the electoral population behavior in Spain allowing us to compute the expected electoral support in the time horizon of January 2016.

Sensitivity analysis versus uncertain parameters is performed in order to improve the reliability of the model results.