Understanding Crop Response to Climate Variability with Complex Agroecosystem Models
Joint Authors
Newlands, Nathaniel K.
Erickson, R. Scott
Espino-Hernández, Gabriela
Source
International Journal of Ecology
Issue
Vol. 2012, Issue 2012 (31 Dec. 2012), pp.1-13, 13 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2012-02-13
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
13
Main Subjects
Natural & Life Sciences (Multidisciplinary)
Biology
Abstract EN
Agroecosystem modeling studies often rely on relatively short time-series historical records for training/tuning empirical parameters and to predict long-term variation in crop production associated with trends in climate and hydrological forcing.
While ecosystem models may exhibit similar prediction skill in validation studies, their sensitivity to climate variability can differ significantly.
Such discrepancy often arises due to the need to tradeoff model complexity with data availability.
We examine the sensitivity in predicting spring wheat crop productivity across agricultural sites with differing soil and climate conditions where long-term agronomic and climate records are available.
We report significant changes in the model sensitivity accompanying changing climatic regime.
If not corrected for, this can lead to substantial predictive error when simulating across time and space.
Our findings lend further support for a hierarchical (componentwise) approach for reducing model complexity and improving prediction skill.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Newlands, Nathaniel K.& Espino-Hernández, Gabriela& Erickson, R. Scott. 2012. Understanding Crop Response to Climate Variability with Complex Agroecosystem Models. International Journal of Ecology،Vol. 2012, no. 2012, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-496230
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Newlands, Nathaniel K.…[et al.]. Understanding Crop Response to Climate Variability with Complex Agroecosystem Models. International Journal of Ecology No. 2012 (2012), pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-496230
American Medical Association (AMA)
Newlands, Nathaniel K.& Espino-Hernández, Gabriela& Erickson, R. Scott. Understanding Crop Response to Climate Variability with Complex Agroecosystem Models. International Journal of Ecology. 2012. Vol. 2012, no. 2012, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-496230
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-496230