A Universal Hurricane Frequency Function

Abstract EN

Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude.

The data-driven model presented here carries stark implications for the large increased numbers of hurricanes which it predicts for a warmer world.

Moreover, the rise in recent decades in the numbers of hurricanes in the Atlantic, but not the Pacific basin, is shown to have a simple explanation in terms of the specific form of H(z), which yields larger percentage increases when a fixed increase in sea surface temperature occurs at higher latitudes and lower temperatures.