Latitude-Time Total Electron Content Anomalies as Precursors to Japan's Large Earthquakes Associated with Principal Component Analysis

Abstract EN

The goal of this study is to determine whether principal component analysis (PCA) can be used to process latitude-time ionospheric TEC data on a monthly basis to identify earthquake associated TEC anomalies.

PCA is applied to latitude-time (mean-of-a-month) ionospheric total electron content (TEC) records collected from the Japan GEONET network to detect TEC anomalies associated with 18 earthquakes in Japan (M≥6.0) from 2000 to 2005.

According to the results, PCA was able to discriminate clear TEC anomalies in the months when all 18 earthquakes occurred.

After reviewing months when no M≥6.0 earthquakes occurred but geomagnetic storm activity was present, it is possible that the maximal principal eigenvalues PCA returned for these 18 earthquakes indicate earthquake associated TEC anomalies.

Previously PCA has been used to discriminate earthquake-associated TEC anomalies recognized by other researchers, who found that statistical association between large earthquakes and TEC anomalies could be established in the 5 days before earthquake nucleation; however, since PCA uses the characteristics of principal eigenvalues to determine earthquake related TEC anomalies, it is possible to show that such anomalies existed earlier than this 5-day statistical window.