Forest Fire Risk Assessment : An Illustrative Example from Ontario, Canada
Joint Authors
Jones, Bruce L.
Woolford, Douglas G.
Wotton, B. Mike
Lee, Jonathan S. W.
Braun, W. John
Source
Journal of Probability and Statistics
Issue
Vol. 2010, Issue 2010 (31 Dec. 2010), pp.1-26, 26 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2010-07-01
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
26
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
This paper presents an analysis of ignition and burn risk due to wildfire in a region of Ontario, Canada using a methodology which is applicable to the entire boreal forest region.
A generalized additive model was employed to obtain ignition risk probabilities and a burn probability map using only historic ignition and fire area data.
Constructing fire shapes according to an accurate physical model for fire spread, using a fuel map and realistic weather scenarios is possible with the Prometheus fire growth simulation model.
Thus, we applied the Burn-P3 implementation of Prometheus to construct a more accurate burn probability map.
The fuel map for the study region was verified and corrected.
Burn-P3 simulations were run under the settings (related to weather) recommended in the software documentation and were found to be fairly robust to errors in the fuel map, but simulated fire sizes were substantially larger than those observed in the historic record.
By adjusting the input parameters to reflect suppression effects, we obtained a model which gives more appropriate fire sizes.
The resulting burn probability map suggests that risk of fire in the study area is much lower than what is predicted by Burn-P3 under its recommended settings.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Braun, W. John& Jones, Bruce L.& Lee, Jonathan S. W.& Woolford, Douglas G.& Wotton, B. Mike. 2010. Forest Fire Risk Assessment : An Illustrative Example from Ontario, Canada. Journal of Probability and Statistics،Vol. 2010, no. 2010, pp.1-26.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-500903
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Braun, W. John…[et al.]. Forest Fire Risk Assessment : An Illustrative Example from Ontario, Canada. Journal of Probability and Statistics No. 2010 (2010), pp.1-26.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-500903
American Medical Association (AMA)
Braun, W. John& Jones, Bruce L.& Lee, Jonathan S. W.& Woolford, Douglas G.& Wotton, B. Mike. Forest Fire Risk Assessment : An Illustrative Example from Ontario, Canada. Journal of Probability and Statistics. 2010. Vol. 2010, no. 2010, pp.1-26.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-500903
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-500903