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Improving the Operational Methodology of Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Prediction in the Australian and the South Pacific Ocean Regions
Joint Authors
Kuleshov, Yuriy
Shelton, K.
Wijnands, J. S.
Source
Issue
Vol. 2014, Issue 2014 (31 Dec. 2014), pp.1-8, 8 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2014-03-17
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
8
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Tropical cyclones (TCs) can have a major impact on the coastal communities of Australia and Pacific Island countries.
Preparedness is one of the key factors to limit TC impacts and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology issues an outlook of TC seasonal activity ahead of TC season for the Australian Region (AR; 5°S to 40°S, 90°E to 160°E) and the South Pacific Ocean (SPO; 5°S to 40°S, 142.5°E to 120°W).
This paper investigates the use of support vector regression models and new explanatory variables to improve the accuracy of seasonal TC predictions.
Correlation analysis and subsequent cross-validation of the generated models showed that the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) performs well as an explanatory variable for TC prediction in both AR and SPO, Niño4 SST anomalies—in AR and Niño1+2 SST anomalies—in SPO.
For both AR and SPO, the developed model which utilised the combination of Niño1+2 SST anomalies, Niño4 SST anomalies, and DMI had the best forecasting performance.
The support vector regression models outperform the current models based on linear discriminant analysis approach for both regions, improving the standard deviation of errors in cross-validation from 2.87 to 2.27 for AR and from 4.91 to 3.92 for SPO.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Wijnands, J. S.& Shelton, K.& Kuleshov, Yuriy. 2014. Improving the Operational Methodology of Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Prediction in the Australian and the South Pacific Ocean Regions. Advances in Meteorology،Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-502231
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Wijnands, J. S.…[et al.]. Improving the Operational Methodology of Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Prediction in the Australian and the South Pacific Ocean Regions. Advances in Meteorology No. 2014 (2014), pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-502231
American Medical Association (AMA)
Wijnands, J. S.& Shelton, K.& Kuleshov, Yuriy. Improving the Operational Methodology of Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Prediction in the Australian and the South Pacific Ocean Regions. Advances in Meteorology. 2014. Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-502231
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-502231