Regional Climate Variability Responses to Future Land Surface Forcing in the Brazilian Amazon

Abstract EN

Tropical deforestation could destabilize regional climate changes.

This paper aimed to model the potential climatological variability caused by future forest vulnerability in the Brazilian Amazon over the 21th century.

The underlying land surface changes between 2005 and 2100 are first projected based on the respectable output produced by Hurtt et al.

Then the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is applied to assess the impacts of future deforestation on regional climate during 2090–2100.

The study results show that the forests in the Brazilian Amazon will primarily be converted into dryland cropland and pasture in the northwest part and into cropland/woodland mosaic in the southeast part, with 5.12% and 13.11%, respectively.

These land surface changes will therefore lead to the significant reduction of the sum of sensible heat flux and latent heat flux and precipitation and the increase of the surface temperature.

Furthermore, the variability of surface temperature is observed with close link to the deforested areas.