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Regional Warming and Emerging Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dirofilariosis in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Other Post-Soviet States from 1981 to 2011 and Projection by 2030
Joint Authors
Kartashev, Vladimir
González-Miguel, Javier
Sepúlveda, Rosa
Morchón, Rodrigo
Simón, Fernando
Simón, Luis
Afonin, Alexandr
Source
Issue
Vol. 2014, Issue 2014 (31 Dec. 2014), pp.1-11, 11 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2014-06-19
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
11
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
We analyze through a climatic model the influence of regional warming on the geographical spreading and potential risk of infection of human dirofilariosis in Russia, Ukraine, and other post-Soviet states from 1981 to 2011 and estimate the situation by 2030.
The model correctly predicts the spatiotemporal location of 97.10% of 2154 clinical cases reported in the area during the studied period, identified by a retrospective review of the literature.
There exists also a significant correlation between annual predicted Dirofilaria generations and calculated morbidity.
The model states the progressive increase of 14.8% in the potential transmission area, up to latitude 64°N, and 14.7% in population exposure.
By 2030 an increase of 18.5% in transmission area and 10.8% in population exposure is expected.
These findings strongly suggest the influence of global warming in both geographical spreading and increase in the number of Dirofilaria generations.
The results should alert about the epidemiological behavior of dirofilariosis and other mosquito-borne diseases in these and other countries with similar climatic characteristics.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Kartashev, Vladimir& Afonin, Alexandr& González-Miguel, Javier& Sepúlveda, Rosa& Simón, Luis& Morchón, Rodrigo…[et al.]. 2014. Regional Warming and Emerging Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dirofilariosis in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Other Post-Soviet States from 1981 to 2011 and Projection by 2030. BioMed Research International،Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-503951
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Kartashev, Vladimir…[et al.]. Regional Warming and Emerging Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dirofilariosis in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Other Post-Soviet States from 1981 to 2011 and Projection by 2030. BioMed Research International No. 2014 (2014), pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-503951
American Medical Association (AMA)
Kartashev, Vladimir& Afonin, Alexandr& González-Miguel, Javier& Sepúlveda, Rosa& Simón, Luis& Morchón, Rodrigo…[et al.]. Regional Warming and Emerging Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dirofilariosis in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Other Post-Soviet States from 1981 to 2011 and Projection by 2030. BioMed Research International. 2014. Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-503951
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-503951