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Asteroids : Assessing Catastrophic Risks
Joint Authors
Chichilnisky, Graciela
Eisenberger, Peter
Source
Journal of Probability and Statistics
Issue
Vol. 2010, Issue 2010 (31 Dec. 2010), pp.1-15, 15 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2010-08-01
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
15
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
We evaluate two risk profiles: (i) global warming risks and (ii) collisions with asteroids that can cause the extinction of our species.
The expected values computed for these two risks suggest that no action will be taken to avoid extinction.
The result is somewhat counterintuitive, but it is typical of the results of using classic decision theory to evaluate catastrophic risks in the distant future, see the study by Posner (2004).
We establish why expected value is insensitive to catastrophic risks see the study by Chichilnisky (1996), and use another criterion to evaluate risk based on axioms for choice under uncertainty that update the classic Von Neumann theory and require equal treatment for rare and frequent events.
Optimizing according to the new criterion is shown to be equivalent to optimizing expected utility with a restriction on the worst outcome in the case of a catastrophe.
The evaluation obtained from the new criterion seems more intuitively plausible, and suggests a more practical and realistic approach to catastrophic risks: optimizing expected value while minimizing losses in the case of a catastrophe.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Chichilnisky, Graciela& Eisenberger, Peter. 2010. Asteroids : Assessing Catastrophic Risks. Journal of Probability and Statistics،Vol. 2010, no. 2010, pp.1-15.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-511181
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Chichilnisky, Graciela& Eisenberger, Peter. Asteroids : Assessing Catastrophic Risks. Journal of Probability and Statistics No. 2010 (2010), pp.1-15.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-511181
American Medical Association (AMA)
Chichilnisky, Graciela& Eisenberger, Peter. Asteroids : Assessing Catastrophic Risks. Journal of Probability and Statistics. 2010. Vol. 2010, no. 2010, pp.1-15.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-511181
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-511181