Assessments of pugh's modification of child- turcotte classification as prognostic indicator in liver cirrhotics : a cohort study

Abstract EN

The purpose of this study was ،0 validate Pugh’s modification ofthe Child-Turcotte Classification (CTC) in the prediction ofmortality inpatients with liver cirrhosis.

A cohort of 45 cirrhotics collected in Mosul Teaching Hospitals, Iraq, was followed for five years and deaths were recorded at twelve month intervalsfroin the individual dates ofdiagnosis.

Cohort analysis and estimation ofRelative Risk measured the strength ofthe association between Pugh’s classes and five year mortality.

Life table analysis was used to compute the probability of survival ٠٢ death in each year during the 5 year period.

Results .

During the five-year period of study twenty patients died.

Eighteen ofthe total deaths (90%) occurred in class c (severe class) from which 78% of the patients died while only two (15% ofthe group) died in class B (Relative Risk = 5.2).

None died in class A (mild class) .

In thefirstyear 20% ofthe cohort died (allfrom Class C) and the Life Table Analysis showed a high probability of death for ءام؛ whole cohort.

A further 24% died during the next four years..

Conclusion - Pugh’s grading can confidently be used in clinical practice to categorize the chances ofpatient survival.

Patients with cirrhosis in the severe grade have a poor chance ofsurvival.