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Modeling agricultural commodity prices volatility in Sudan using autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models
Author
Musa, Abd al-Aziz Jibril Muhammad
Source
Majallat al-iqtiṣād wa-al-ʻulūm al-siyāsīyah wa-al-iḥṣāʾīyah
Issue
Vol. 2012, Issue 12 (31 Dec. 2012), pp.1-14, 14 p.
Publisher
Omdurman Islamic University Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences
Publication Date
2012-12-31
Country of Publication
Sudan
No. of Pages
14
Main Subjects
Topics
Abstract AR
تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى نمزجه و التنبؤ بتقلبات أسعار السلع الزراعية في السودان باستخدام أسعار سلع الذرة، السمسم، الدخن و القمح للفترة من 1 / 1 / 1997 إلى 30 / 8 / 2010.
طبقت في الدراسة نماذج GARCH (1,1)، EGARCH(1,1)، TGARCH(1,1) و APARCH(1,1) للانحدار الذاتي لاختلاف التباين الشرطي٬ لنمزجه و التنبؤ بوجود٬ انتظام و التغيرات التي تحدث في أسعار سلع الذرة، السمسم، الدخن و القمح الزراعية في السودان لنفس الفترة.
الذاتي لاختلاف التباين الشرطي تعد الأفضل لنمزجه و التنبؤ بوجود٬ انتظام و تقلبات أسعار السلع الزراعية في السودان.
و قد أوضحت نتائج الدراسة أنة بالنسبة لهذا النوع من البيانات، فإن نماذج الانحدار الذاتي لاختلاف التباين الشرطي تعد الأفضل لنمزجة و التنبؤ بوجود، انتظام و تقلبات أسعار السلع الزراعية في السودان.
Abstract EN
This paper attempts to model and forecast agricultural commodity prices volatility in the Sudan using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models.
Various types of GARCH models for instance; GARCH (1,1), EGARCH(1,1), TGARCH(1,1) and APARCH(1,1) were applied to four agricultural commodities cover the period 1st January 1997 – 30th September 2010; to test the hypothesis of persistence, asymmetry and volatility of the prices of agricultural commodities.
It is found that, the sum of ARCH and GARCH coefficients is not close to one in all commodities indicating that volatility shocks is not quite persistent, moreover volatility, changes in volatility are not present in the commodity prices returns series (i.e.
No volatility and changes in volatility in surgham, seaseme, millet and wheat of agricultural commodities), furthermore Asymmetry in volatility is achieved in all commodities except for wheat, in addition none of agricultural commodity has an impact of bad news on the price volatility, while good news on the price volatility is presents in seaseme commodity, lastly leverage effect is not present on the conditional variance.
Therefore (GARCH) models are appropriate in modeling and forecasting agricultural commodity prices volatility.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Musa, Abd al-Aziz Jibril Muhammad. 2012. Modeling agricultural commodity prices volatility in Sudan using autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Majallat al-iqtiṣād wa-al-ʻulūm al-siyāsīyah wa-al-iḥṣāʾīyah،Vol. 2012, no. 12, pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-575419
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Musa, Abd al-Aziz Jibril Muhammad. Modeling agricultural commodity prices volatility in Sudan using autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Majallat al-iqtiṣād wa-al-ʻulūm al-siyāsīyah wa-al-iḥṣāʾīyah No. 12 (2012), pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-575419
American Medical Association (AMA)
Musa, Abd al-Aziz Jibril Muhammad. Modeling agricultural commodity prices volatility in Sudan using autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Majallat al-iqtiṣād wa-al-ʻulūm al-siyāsīyah wa-al-iḥṣāʾīyah. 2012. Vol. 2012, no. 12, pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-575419
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references : p. 14
Record ID
BIM-575419