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Arab countries between winter and spring : where democracy shock goes next !
Joint Authors
Abd al-Latif, Hani
Mishra, Tapas
Staneva, Anita
Source
Economic Research Forum : Working Paper Series
Issue
Vol. 2015, Issue 901-975 (31 Dec. 2015)33 p.
Publisher
Economic Research Forum for the Arab Countries Iran and Turkey
Publication Date
2015-12-31
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
33
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
This paper presents rigorous mechanisms to study how persistent democratic shocks in one country produce spillover effects and comprise a major determinant in dynamic growth interdependence among nations.
Taking the case of the Arab Spring in particular and employing both spatial and panel VAR mechanisms, we demonstrate that stronger relational ‘proximity’ among nations with respect to democracy is likely to trigger similar institutional reforms and growth upsurges in the neighborhood.
Democratization event chronology is employed to identify transitional dynamics among countries’ democratic pathways.
A comprehensive model of transmission mechanism and response of democratic is further initiated by estimating a Global Vector Autoregression method among nineteen Arab countries.
Our analysis reveals patterns of discrete changes in regimes that run counter to the dominant aggregate trends of democratic waves or sequences, presenting how the ebb and flow of democracy varies among the world’s regions.
The main finding suggests that the current revolutionary waves in the Arab World can be understood in light of the economic situation in a given country.
More specifically, we find that high and upper middle income countries are immune to the recent democratic shock transference, whereas the lower middle and low income countries seem to be perfect candidates of another revolutionary wave.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Abd al-Latif, Hani& Mishra, Tapas& Staneva, Anita. 2015. Arab countries between winter and spring : where democracy shock goes next !. Economic Research Forum : Working Paper Series،Vol. 2015, no. 901-975.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-623408
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Abd al-Latif, Hani…[et al.]. Arab countries between winter and spring : where democracy shock goes next !. Economic Research Forum : Working Paper Series No. 901-975 (Dec. 2015).
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-623408
American Medical Association (AMA)
Abd al-Latif, Hani& Mishra, Tapas& Staneva, Anita. Arab countries between winter and spring : where democracy shock goes next !. Economic Research Forum : Working Paper Series. 2015. Vol. 2015, no. 901-975.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-623408
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes appendices : p. 20-31
Record ID
BIM-623408