Dynamic impacts of commodity prices on the Moroccan economy

Dissertant

Mani, Hamzah Abd al-Allawi

Thesis advisor

Baijou, Ahmad

University

Al Akhawayn University

Faculty

The School of Business Administration

University Country

Morocco

Degree

Master

Degree Date

2014

English Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic impact of commodity prices on the Moroccan economy using VAR and VEC models.

The empirical analysis of the time series analysis inspects stationarity, granger causality, cointegating vectors, and long-run and short-run relations.

The empirical results show that phosphate prices impact in the short-run Moroccan merchandise exports and GDP; however, this effect remains insignificant in the long-run.

It indicates also that variation of international energy and grain prices drive merchandise imports.

In fact, these prices impact Moroccan imports both in the short-run and the long-run.

Conversely, energy and grain prices have no effect on the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Furthermore, unit root and structural breaks analyses of the CPI confirm the resilience of the monetary policy to energy and grain prices shocks.

Finally, the results indicate that subsidies budget increases with an increasing rate.

Hence, subsidies are more affected by factors other than energy and grain prices.

Main Subjects

Economy and Commerce

Topics

• Economic conditions
• Prices
• Morocco

No. of Pages

70

Table of Contents

• APA
• MLA
• AMA

Language

English

Data Type

Arab Theses

Record ID

BIM-624559