Trends in international migration flows : an extended gravity model approach over 1960-2010

Abstract EN

The paper develops an extended gravity model of migration using a Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial specification.

Estimation results based on data concerning the total number of immigrants over the period (1960-2010) for 202 countries confirm the positive and almost constant effect of income.

This result contrasts with the relatively rising impact of host countries’ labor markets size and requested skills as measured by the level of human capital.

Contrary to common language, contiguity and ex-colonizer’s impact loosened over the estimation period.

Socio-economic conditions in host countries’ impact were stronger than the political regime.

Also integration policies account more than immigration restrictions in explaining migration flows.