Vulnerability of rain-fed agriculture in the Mediterranean Region and its potential adaptation to climate change

Abstract EN

This study aims at assessing the impact of climate change on rain-fed agriculture in the Mediterranean region by taking the West Bank as a case study.

The impact was studied by evaluating the effects of increasing monthly temperatures and decreasing precipitation on three main crops (olives, grapes and wheat), which are common rain-fed crops in the region.

The FAO CROPWAT model was utilized to estimate actual crop evapotranspiration (ET), maximum crop ET and relative yield of these crops.

The FAO CROPWAT simulations and the agricultural statistics showed that ET ratio (actual to maximum ET) and yield ratio (actual to maximum) could be directly related to annual precipitation, the type of crop and soil.

The effects of increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall resulting from climate change were found to be significantly greater when annual precipitation is below certain values depending on the type of crop and soil.

The simulations showed that for olives and grapes, climate change will reduce yield by less than 10% when annual precipitation exceeds 500 mm, and this reduction will reach 20% in areas with precipitation between 350 and 450 mm.

For wheat, simulations showed a yield reduction reaching 30% for areas with precipitation between 350 and 500 mm.

Simulations showed that areas with precipitation below 350 mm will become unsuitable for economic production of these crops without supplementary irrigation.

The study shows that areas with annual precipitation below 500 mm are more vulnerable to climate change more than areas with greater annual precipitation.

The limits at which areas become more vulnerable to climate change depend on crop type, soil type and potential ET.