The sustainability of Riyadh city : a backcasting study using household consumption patterns

Abstract EN

Sustainability is a major challenge for Riyadh City.

Nearly all indicators tend to reveal a bleak future for the city if the current trends of resource consumption are allowed to go on.

Forecasting methods that have been extensively used in urban planning research have shown little success to come up with sound policies to tackle sustainability issues.

The problem with such technique lies in the fact that these forecasts are being built upon the current trends.

Current trends and actions are part of the problem.

Projecting them into the future would simply mean amplifying the problem and rendering it even worse and more complex.

The backcasting approach is, therefore, required to deal with the issue of planning for sustainability.

This approach consists of having an informed vision about the city’s desired future in order to strategically deal with potential trade-off from different decisions.

It shifts away from current trends and their associated problems to proceed towards a transitional state where a change in behaviors and lifestyles is needed to move society in the direction of sustainability.

The results show excessive use of energy and land for residential use and car movement which may exert a huge burden on the city environment.

When household categories were compared, those with higher socioeconomic status tend to be more spendthrift than their counterparts of lower SES.

Income was found to account for much of the variance in energy requirements and also for food, water and washing expenditures.

To tackle the issue of Riyadh sustainability, a visionary image for the city in the year 2020 must be set up.

The target is to achieve a Factor 30 in environmental efficiency for the city to curtail the overgrowing environmental stress.

To achieve this target, policies must be geared towards changing households consumption behaviors and lifestyles.

Automobile trips must be kept to a minimum.

For that, the physical plan layout of the remaining areas of the city must follow design principles that encourage pedestrian movements, promote means of public transport and reduce incentives to use the private car.