نمذجة أثر المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية على أداء سوق الخرطوم للأوراق المالية باستخذام تحليل المتغيرات الصورية 2003 2013

Abstract EN

This work aimed to model the impact of macroeconomic variables (money supply, inflation rate, exchange rate) on the performance of the Khartoum Stock Exchange from 2003-2013 measured by the general market index by using dummy variables technique.

The study applied the general Linear Regressionmodel, including twoDummy variablesto measure the impact of secession of South Sudan and the electronic trading system when approved for the trading activity in the market 2011 as well as the adoption of the time period of years by quarters.The data used for the analysis spanned over the period from the fourth quarter of 2003 to the second quarter of 2013.

The study assumes that there is a significant effect of using dummy variables separately and with other quantitative variables.

The study also assumes that there is a negative impact on the performance of Khartoum Market Stock Exchange after the secession of South Sudan and that there is an improvement after the start of electronic trading.

The empirical results of the study showed that the best model to represent the data is one that includes money supply and variables before the secession of the South Sudan and after electronic trading.

In addition, the study reveals that we can obtain model of the adopted variable and the independent variables (the secession of the South, electronic trading, quarters for the years).

It has been proven that the market index in the period before the secession of Southern Sudan was more than the average value by (7.459) for the period after the secession.

It was also proved that the market index in the period after electronic trading increased in the average value by (49.335) for the period after the pre-electronic trading.

The study recommends the need for more empirical studies to measure the requirements that occur in the performance of Khartoum Stock Exchange.