نموذج قياس النزعة الانفصالية للأقليات في الوطن العربي

Abstract EN

Based on an understanding of secessionism as a socio-political phenomenon, this study seeks to identify the variables that reinforce secessionist tendencies among minorities, defining them through an examination of 32 quantitative studies which include samples of 338 minority groups in the region, including the category of “people under threat”.

In order to formulate a method to determine the relative value of each variable affecting secessionism, and measure the correlation between them, methodological tools such as a factor analysis and cross-impact matrixes were used.

In total, 27 indicators were identified, with the mobility of these variables examined on the three levels of the secessionism index: non-violent protest, violent protest, and armed rebellion.

In this study, variables are categorized into political (i.e., the percentage of political representation in senior posts); economic (i.e., the comparison of incomes when it comes to minorities and majorities); geographic (i.e., whether the minority is concentrated in a specific region); and social categories (i.e., what distinguishes the minority, be it race, color, language, religion).

The findings conclude that when it comes to minorities and secessionist tendencies, geographic variables have the most weight; political variables have the least weight, and religious minorities are the most likely to develop secessionist tendencies compared to other forms of minorities.