Comparison of agricultural forecasts with actual data

Abstract EN

So far, little has been said regarding the accuracy of forecasting given by the Ministry of Agriculture and Water (MAW), Saudi Arabia.

Measures of accuracy are quite useful in c©mpar؛ng several methods of sampling or analysis.

A comparison of forecasts with actaal data gives us a measure of accuracy.

In fact, a current evaluation of the accuracy of crop forecasts appears useful since government agencies, agribusiness firms, and farmers make decisions involving millions of riyals annually on the basis of the forecast, and deficiencies in the forecasts may cause undesirable effects on plan؟ and resource allocation.

The present research examines the accuracy of 255 MAW crop area and production forecasts for wheat, barley, tomato, watermelons, palm dates, grapes, chicken, sheep, س camel for the peri«l 11416-س H (i.e.

1979-1995G).

The study tested the difference between actual and forecast estimates.

The results of this study provide useful information about decision making in crop (animal) forecasting procedures to meet users re؟u،rements.